Will the Scottish team at last end their long-standing losing streak?

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.